November 6th, 2008 Categories: Economics, Real Estate
I remember the days of Ronald Reagan and trickle down economics. Oklahoma is doing great in housing if you compare it to the rest of the country, however that may be damning with faint praise. The economic meltdown affects everyone, some more and some less. Let’s break down the good and bad news and make predictions in Oklahoma for 2009 real estate
Are there buyers out there?
A recent NAR survey reveals that 85% of those questioned believe that this is a good time to buy. The really bad areas like California and Florida are being fueled with up to 60% price drops. Can you say housing bubble? Right now psychology rules the market. If that can be matched up with mortgage money availability we just may have a way out.
Are home owners smoking illegal substances?
A current www.zillow.com report showed that 49% of homeowners believe that even now their homes are worth the same or more as before. Federal government statistics show the 75% of homes in the U.S. have lost value. This is a dangerous disconnect for those still making their payments. I turned down a listing in July because the owner felt like the home was worth $265K rather than the $245K I recommended at a time the market was stronger. It is now at $249K and still on the market. Good Realtors don’t waste time on pie in the sky owners.
Appraised value versus Market value
A home is worth what a buyer and seller agree to for value. I once went to a listing appointment as the second Realtor to list the home. The owners said the $275K market valued home had a previous appraisal of $325K. I told them to save the commission and have the appraiser buy it. Good Realtors look to absorption rates. Anything over 6 months of home inventory and buyers have the edge. Also remember that since home values were inflated with the help of appraisers they are now under considerable pressure to be appraising under strict guidelines, and they are being scrutinized for any possible manipulation.
What the government and banks can do to help housing
If millions of homeowners who with adjustments can stay in their homes we can recover by the end of next year. Although only 6% of Oklahoma City homes sales are repos, some areas like Los Angeles are 65% of sales. This means prices will continue to fall, people who didn’t have negative equity will soon have it leading to more repos, and tax collections go right down the tube meaning more layoffs. Hopefully the administration of President Obama will address this as well as job creation. No new jobs means to new buyers. Credit restrictions are also choking the market. I recently had an investor with an above 720 credit score who wanted to put down 20% on a house here. With Fannie Mae changes, since she had 4 investment homes already they wanted 40% to 50% down. This was on an already leased home that she would be netting $350 per month positive cash flow. Besides new homeowners, we will still need investors to buy new and distressed property. I realize that saying that since 2001 credit rules being lax is an understatement. It also doesn’t make sense to tighten the screws so much that good people can’t buy.
Is Oklahoma OK?
Currently according to federal housing statistics, Oklahoma is leading the nation in the rise of the average and median price of a home sale. Unemployment is below 4%, and job losses have been out gained by job creation. We did not have a sub-prime problem because we were affordable. I saw a statistic on Tulsa that showed some homes were still as much as 26% undervalued and these were not short sales or foreclosures. Our rent to purchase price ration is 12 to 1 when the national average for the last twenty years is 15 to 1. Compare that to Florida where even with 50% to 60% reductions in price the ratio is 20 to 1. We should be grateful, but the economic turmoil if it gets much worse could damage even our market. Our economy and population has grown to the extent that we are not dependent on energy like the old days. It also means that we are more affected by national trends. With energy, agriculture, alternative fuels, technology, and medical research showing great increases in jobs we will weather the storm. But that doesn’t mean we cannot have economic storm damage.
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