More homeowners are opting for ’strategic defaults’

Underwater on their mortgages and angry at banks, more borrowers are choosing to hand over the keys, even if they can afford the payments.

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Wynn Bloch bought her Palm Desert house for $385,000 in 2006. Now she says it will never be worth anywhere near the amount of her mortgage, so she stopped paying on her loan and moved out. (Bret Hartman / For The Times / March 4, 2010)

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Walkaway

Southern California home prices rise 10% in February

CHART: Strategic defaults

By Alana Semuels

March 17, 2010

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Wynn Bloch has always dutifully paid her bills and socked away money for retirement. But in December she defaulted on the mortgage on her Palm Desert home, even though she could afford the payments.

Bloch paid $385,000 for the two-bedroom in 2006, when prices were still surging. Comparable homes are now selling in the low-$200,000s. At 66, the retired psychologist doubted she’d see her investment rebound in her lifetime. Plus, she said she was duped into an expensive loan.

The way she sees it, big banks that helped fuel the mess all got bailouts while small fry like her are left holding the bag. No more.

“There was not a chance that house was ever going to be worth anywhere near what my mortgage was,” said Bloch, who is now renting a few miles away after defaulting on the $310,000 loan. “I haven’t cheated or stolen.”

Time was when Americans would do almost anything to hang on to their homes. But that commitment appears to be fraying as more people fall behind on their loans while watching the banks and lenders that helped trigger the financial crisis return to prosperity.

Nearly one-quarter of U.S. mortgages, or about 11 million loans, are “underwater,” i.e. the houses are worth less than the balance of their loans. While home values are regaining ground — median prices rose 10% in Southern California last month to $275,000 compared with a year earlier — they remain far below the July 2007 peak of $505,000.

Many homeowners are just coming to grips with the idea that prices will take years to reach the pre-crash peak: as long as 14 years in California, according to economist Chris Thornberg.

Stuck with properties whose negative equity won’t recover for years, and feeling betrayed by financial institutions that bankrolled the frenzy, some homeowners are concluding it’s smarter to walk away than to stick it out.

“There is a growing sense of anger, a growing recognition that there is a double standard if it’s OK for financial institutions to look after themselves but not OK for homeowners,” said Brent T. White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who wrote a paper on the subject.

Just how many are walking away isn’t clear. But some researchers are convinced that the numbers are growing. So-called strategic defaults accounted for about 35% of defaults by U.S. homeowners in December 2009, up from 23% in March of 2009, according to Luigi Zingales, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

He and colleagues at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management reached that conclusion by surveying homeowners about their attitudes and experiences with loan defaults.

They found that borrowers were more willing to walk away if someone they knew had done it, and that the greater a homeowner’s negative equity the more likely he or she was to default, even if the monthly payment was affordable.

An analysis released last year by credit bureau Experian and consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimated that nearly 1 in 5 homeowners who were seriously delinquent on their mortgages in the last three months of 2008 were walkaways.

“The fact that people are strategically defaulting — there is no question,” Zingales said. “The risk that the number of people doing this might explode is significant.”

A flood of walkaways could damage the nation’s fledgling housing recovery by swamping the market with foreclosed properties. Still, some experts are dubious that millions of underwater homeowners will pull the plug as Bloch did. Homeownership remains the cornerstone of the American dream. Moving is a hassle. And the stigma associated with a foreclosure is likely to keep many hanging on for a recovery.

The biggest surprise is that so many underwater homeowners continue to pay, said White, the Arizona law professor. He’s convinced that personal shame, as well as moral suasion by the government and financial institutions, has kept many homeowners from walking away, even when they’d be better off financially by dumping their homes.

But real estate veterans said old taboos were eroding fast. Jon Maddux, a former real estate investor who in 2007 founded You Walk Away, a for-profit company that guides homeowners through the process of default, said his earliest customers struggled with emotional ties to their homes as well as remorse about reneging on an obligation. That’s changed as more homeowners have concluded that the housing market isn’t going to rebound quickly and they’d be better off cutting their losses.

“Now, it’s more of a business decision — it’s people who could afford their house but it’s an inconvenience,” Maddux said.

He and other experts said average Americans are fed up with hearing how they’re supposed to honor their debts while businesses operate by another set of rules.

Case in point: Maguire Properties Inc., one of the largest commercial landlords in California, walked away from seven prime office buildings in Los Angeles and Orange counties last year, defaulting on loans worth more than $1 billion.

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Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

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This is a cautionary tale for those who think we are out of the woods in real estate. As Yogi Berra said, it aint over until it’s over.

The Southwest is the new frontier for young Americans—the region where those in their 20s and 30s have the best chance of establishing themselves in a recessionary economy.

Five Southwestern metropolitan areas, led by No. 1 Austin, rank among the nation’s 10 best places for young adults, according to a new Portfolio.com/bizjournals study.

(Click here to explore an interactive that breaks down the largest U.S. metropolitan areas and how they rank as best places for young adults.)

Two qualities help Austin—the host of the annual South by Southwest music, film, and interactive conference and festival—to stand out among the nation’s largest metros:

— Two thirds of the nation’s major markets have fewer jobs now than five years ago, but Austin added 99,200 jobs during that span. Its annual employment-growth rate of 2.8 percent is the fastest in America.

— Austin has the strongest concentration of young people among the 67 metros. Twenty-eight percent of its residents are between the ages of 18 and 34. The median for the study group is 23.1 percent.

Washington, Raleigh, and Boston are the three runners-up in the study’s rankings of the best places for young adults. They’re followed by four Southwestern metros—Houston, Oklahoma City, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Tulsa—that occupy fifth through eighth place.

Portfolio.com/bizjournals analyzed the 67 U.S. metropolitan areas with populations above 750,000, searching for qualities that would appeal to workers in their 20s and early 30s. The study’s 10-part formula gave the highest marks to places with strong growth rates, moderate costs of living, and substantial pools of young adults who are college-educated and employed. (See the methodology sidebar for details.)

Here’s a quick look at the very best places—the top-10 metros for young adults.

1. Austin: Its attractiveness to young adults is broadly based, and it ranks among the 10 leading markets in five of the categories that were analyzed. This isn’t the first time Austin takes top honors in a Portfolio.com/bizjournals analysis. Earlier this year, the city was named the best city in which to launch a small business.

2. Washington: Educated young adults flock to the nation’s capital, where 35.8 percent of all 18-to-34-year-olds hold bachelor’s degrees. The study group’s median is 23.2 percent. Per capita income ($56,510) is well above average.

3. Raleigh: This is the fastest-growing major metro in the nation. The population of the Raleigh area is increasing by 3.9 percent per year. That’s more than triple the pace for the typical market, 1.2 percent. Another North Carolina metro, Charlotte, placed at 28 in the rankings.

4. Boston: Elite universities such as Harvard and MIT give Boston its intellectual cachet. The local share of young adults with college degrees (37.6 percent) is the highest in the country.

5. Houston: Employment opportunities abound in Houston, where the job-growth rate (1.7 percent per year) ranks among the five best in the nation. And so does its annual upswing in per capita income (6.6 percent).

6. Oklahoma City: The unemployment rate for young adults is lower here than anywhere but Salt Lake City and Tulsa. Oklahoma City also enjoys the nation’s third-best pace for annual income growth, a rapid 7.2 percent.

7. Dallas-Fort Worth: The recession caused some backsliding in 2009, but Dallas-Fort Worth still has 206,000 more jobs than it did five years ago. Local population is zipping higher by 2.4 percent per year.

8. Tulsa: Here’s an area that’s a true bargain. Median rent is $508 per month in Tulsa, the third-lowest figure in the study group. Compare that to such budget-breakers as San Jose (median rent of $1,334) or Honolulu ($1,227).

9. Seattle: This high-tech metro offers a wide range of good-paying jobs. Seattle ranks among the 10 markets with the largest per capita incomes ($50,471) and smallest unemployment rates for young adults.

10. Baton Rouge: Louisiana is on its way back from the wrath of Hurricane Katrina, and this is one of its success stories. Baton Rouge boasts a high concentration of young adults (26.1 percent) and a strong rate of income growth.

The least desirable market for young adults, according to the Portfolio.com/bizjournals study, is Detroit, which shares the pain of the major automotive corporations based there.

Detroit is saddled with the nation’s worst unemployment rate for young adults, the slowest rate of income growth, and the biggest decline in overall employment. A total of 343,700 jobs have disappeared from the Detroit area during the past five years. This isn’t the first time Detroit has come up short this year in a Portolio.com/bizjournals study: It came in last in the January analysis of small-business vitality and was the lowest-ranking major city in February’s review of U.S. wealth centers.

Two Midwestern industrial markets and two Sunbelt metros round out the bottom five. These areas may differ in geography, but they share a lack of attractiveness to young adults: Cleveland (66th place), Dayton, Ohio (65th), Tampa-St. Petersburg (64th), and California’s Riverside-San Bernardino area (63rd).

(This analysis is part of the Portfolio.com series U.S. Uncovered. To get more in-depth reports exploring the best places to work, play and retire, click here.)

G. Scott Thomas is projects editor for Buffalo Business First.

Oklahoma City and Tulsa are in the Top Ten cities for young people surviving and thriving in a recessionary economy. Any good news is well, good news.